國家衛生研究院 NHRI:Item 3990099045/12575
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Items with full text/Total items : 12145/12927 (94%)
Visitors : 909450      Online Users : 732
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
    •  Adv. Search
    Home ‧ Login ‧ Upload ‧ Help ‧ About ‧ Administer Goto mobile version


    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.nhri.org.tw/handle/3990099045/12575


    Title: The effects of seasonal climate variability on dengue annual incidence in Hong Kong: A modelling study
    Authors: Yuan, HY;Liang, J;Lin, PS;Sucipto, K;Tsegaye, MM;Wen, TH;Pfeiffer, S;Pfeiffer, D
    Contributors: Institute of Population Health Sciences;National Mosquito-Borne Diseases Control Research Center
    Abstract: In recent years, dengue has been rapidly spreading and growing in the tropics and subtropics. Located in southern China, Hong Kong's subtropical monsoon climate may favour dengue vector populations and increase the chance of disease transmissions during the rainy summer season. An increase in local dengue incidence has been observed in Hong Kong ever since the first case in 2002, with an outbreak reaching historically high case numbers in 2018. However, the effects of seasonal climate variability on recent outbreaks are unknown. As the local cases were found to be spatially clustered, we developed a Poisson generalized linear mixed model using pre-summer monthly total rainfall and mean temperature to predict annual dengue incidence (the majority of local cases occur during or after the summer months), over the period 2002-2018 in three pre-defined areas of Hong Kong. Using leave-one-out cross-validation, 5 out of 6 observations of area-specific outbreaks during the major outbreak years 2002 and 2018 were able to be predicted. 42 out of a total of 51 observations (82.4%) were within the 95% confidence interval of the annual incidence predicted by our model. Our study found that the rainfall before and during the East Asian monsoon (pre-summer) rainy season is negatively correlated with the annual incidence in Hong Kong while the temperature is positively correlated. Hence, as mosquito control measures in Hong Kong are intensified mainly when heavy rainfalls occur during or close to summer, our study suggests that a lower-than-average intensity of pre-summer rainfall should also be taken into account as an indicator of increased dengue risk.
    Date: 2020-03-09
    Relation: Scientific Reports. 2020 Mar 9;10:Article number 4297.
    Link to: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-60309-7
    JIF/Ranking 2023: http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=NHRI&SrcApp=NHRI_IR&KeyISSN=2045-2322&DestApp=IC2JCR
    Cited Times(WOS): https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000563340000012
    Cited Times(Scopus): https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85081565172
    Appears in Collections:[Pei-Sheng Lin] Periodical Articles
    [Others] Periodical Articles

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    PUB32152334.pdf3001KbAdobe PDF384View/Open


    All items in NHRI are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.

    Related Items in TAIR

    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback