國家衛生研究院 NHRI:Item 3990099045/13072
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 12145/12927 (94%)
造访人次 : 906407      在线人数 : 945
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 查询小技巧：
  • 您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号"，以获取较精准的检索结果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜寻，建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段，可获得较完整数据
    •  进阶搜寻
    主页 ‧ 登入 ‧ 上传 ‧ 说明 ‧ 关于NHRI ‧ 管理 到手机版


    jsp.display-item.identifier=請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: http://ir.nhri.org.tw/handle/3990099045/13072


    题名: Projection of future temperature extremes, related mortality, and adaptation due to climate and population changes in Taiwan
    作者: Chen, CC;Wang, YR;Wang, YC;Lin, SL;Chen, CT;Lu, MM;Guo, YLL
    贡献者: Institute of Population Health Sciences
    摘要: Background: Extreme temperature events have been observed to appear more frequently and with greater intensity in Taiwan in recent decades due to climate change, following the global trend. Projections of temperature extremes across different climate zones and their impacts on related mortality and adaptation have not been well studied. Methods: We projected site-specific future temperature extremes by statistical downscaling of 8 global climate models followed by Bayesian model averaging from 2021 to 2060 across Taiwan under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. We then calculated the attributable mortality (AM) in 6 municipalities and in the eastern area by multiplying the city/county- and degree-specific relative risk of mortality according to the future population projections. We estimated the degree of adaptation to heat by slope reduction of the projected AM to be comparable with that in 2018. Results: The annual number of hot days with mean temperatures over 30 °C was predicted to have a substantial 2- to 5-fold increase throughout the residential areas of Taiwan by the end of 2060 under RCP8.5, whereas the decrease in cold days was less substantial. The decrease in cold-related mortality below 15 °C was projected to outweigh heat-related mortality for the next two decades, and then heat-related mortality was predicted to drastically increase and cross over cold-related mortality, surpassing it from 2045 to 2055. Adjusting for future population size, the percentage increase in heat-related deaths per 100,000 people could increase by more than 10-fold under the worst scenario (RCP8.5), especially for those over 65 years old. The heat-related impacts will be most severe in southern Taiwan, which has a tropical climate. There is a very high demand for heat-adaptation prior to 2050 under all RCP scenarios. Conclusions: Spatiotemporal variations in AM in cities in different climate zones are projected in Taiwan and are expected to have a net negative effect in the near future before shifting to a net positive effect from 2045 to 2055. However, there is an overall positive and increasing trend of net effect for elderly individuals under all the emission scenarios. Active adaptation plans need to be well developed to face future challenges due to climate change, especially for the elderly population in central and southern Taiwan.
    日期: 2021-03
    關聯: Science of the Total Environment. 2021 Mar;760:Article number 143373.
    Link to: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143373
    JIF/Ranking 2023: http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=NHRI&SrcApp=NHRI_IR&KeyISSN=0048-9697&DestApp=IC2JCR
    Cited Times(WOS): https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000607779400040
    Cited Times(Scopus): https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85095809705
    显示于类别:[陳主智] 期刊論文

    文件中的档案:

    档案 描述 大小格式浏览次数
    SCP85095809705.pdf2881KbAdobe PDF300检视/开启


    在NHRI中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.

    TAIR相关文章

    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回馈