Background: Initially projected to be the fourth most at-risk country for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) because of its close ties with China (1), Taiwan, on 21 December 2020, marked 253 consecutive days without a locally transmitted case, and a cumulative total of 770 cases (675 imported) and 7 deaths (2). Despite imported cases, Taiwan has successfully contained COVID-19 without a national lockdown (Figure 1). Objective: To assess the possibility of undocumented COVID-19 deaths in Taiwan and whether nonpharmaceutical interventions and behavior changes affected all-cause, pneumonia and influenza, and road traffic deaths in 2020. Methods: We collected government data from 2008 to 2020 for yearly population, all-cause deaths, weekly pneumonia and influenza deaths, and monthly road traffic deaths (January to October 2020) (Figure 2). Using midyear population and World Health Organization standard population (2000) data, we calculated the corresponding adjusted mortality rates per 100 000 persons and their 95% CIs for each year. Discussion: Our results suggest that excess mortality in Taiwan in 2020 is highly unlikely because the adjusted all-cause mortality rate decreased compared with the 2019 rate and does not depart from the ongoing declining trend of previous years.
Date:
2021-06-01
Relation:
Annals of Internal Medicine. 2021 Jun 1;174(6):880-882.
