國家衛生研究院 NHRI:Item 3990099045/15568
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    题名: Beyond the waves: Unraveling pandemic outcomes with genomic insights and immunity analysis – Evidence from 14 countries
    作者: Jang, YA;Wu, HY;Hsu, YT;Chen, YK;Chiou, HY;Sytwu, HK;Chen, WJ;Tsou, HH
    贡献者: Institute of Population Health Sciences;National Institute of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology;Center for Neuropsychiatric Research
    摘要: Objective: Although the World Health Organization and many governments have recategorized COVID-19 as a generally mild to moderately severe disease, consecutive pandemic waves driven by immune escape variants have underscored the need for timely and accurate prediction of the next outbreak. Nevertheless, little attention has been paid to translating genomic data and infection- and vaccine-induced immunity into direct estimates. Methods: We retrieved epidemiologic and genomic data shortly before pandemic waves across 14 developed countries from late 2021 to mid-2022 and examined associations between early-stage variant competition, infection- and vaccine-induced immunity, and the time intervals between wave peaks. We applied regression analysis and the generalized estimating equation method to construct an inferential model. Results: Each per cent increase in the proportion of a new variant was associated with a 1.0% reduction in interpeak intervals on average. Curvilinear associations between vaccine-induced immunity and outcome variables were observed, suggesting that reaching a critical vaccine distribution rate may decrease the caseload of the upcoming wave. Conclusions: By leveraging readily accessible pre-outbreak genomic and epidemiologic data, our results not only substantiate the predictive potential of early variant fractions but also propose that immunity acquired through infection alone may not sufficiently mitigate transmission. Conversely, a rapid and widespread vaccination initiative appears to be correlated with a decrease in disease incidence.
    日期: 2024-01
    關聯: Preventive Medicine. 2024 Jan;178:Article number 107820.
    Link to: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2023.107820
    JIF/Ranking 2023: http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=NHRI&SrcApp=NHRI_IR&KeyISSN=0091-7435&DestApp=IC2JCR
    Cited Times(WOS): https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:001143622300001
    Cited Times(Scopus): https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85180578952
    显示于类别:[鄒小蕙] 期刊論文
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    [司徒惠康] 期刊論文
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