國家衛生研究院 NHRI:Item 3990099045/5550
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    題名: Estimating temporal transmission parameters from infectious disease household data, with application to Taiwan SARS data
    作者: Chang, IS;Fu, SJ;Chen, CH;Wang, TH;Hsiung, CA
    貢獻者: National Institute of Cancer Research;Division of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics;Center for Biomedical Resource
    摘要: Taking households having at least one infective as standard units and considering both a within-household infection rate and a global infection rate, we propose a Bayesian two level mixing S-I-R (susceptible-infective-removed) counting process model in which the transmission parameters may change over time and the parameters of interest are the within-household infection rate and the removal rate. Customized Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are developed for generating samples from the posterior distribution for inference purpose, based only on the removal times. The numerical performance of this method is examined in a simulation study. Applying this method to 2003 Taiwan SARS data, we find that the within-household infection rate decreases, the removal rate increases and their ratio is less than one and decreases significantly during the epidemic. This method allows the estimation of these parameters during the epidemic. For a rapidly transmitted disease, it provides a method to nearly real-time tracking of infection measures.
    日期: 2009-06
    關聯: Statistics in Biosciences. 2009 Jun;1(1):80-94.
    Link to: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12561-009-9008-z
    Cited Times(Scopus): https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85084804474
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