國家衛生研究院 NHRI:Item 3990099045/8275
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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ir.nhri.org.tw/handle/3990099045/8275


    Title: A tool to predict risk for gastric cancer in patients with peptic ulcer disease on the basis of a nationwide cohort
    Authors: Lee, TY;Wang, CB;Chen, TT;Kuo, KN;Wu, MS;Lin, JT;Wu, CY
    Contributors: Division of Health Services and Preventive Medicine;National Institute of Cancer Research
    Abstract: Background & Aims: Patients with gastric ulcers have significantly higher risk of gastric cancer, especially within 2 years after diagnosis. We used data from a national database to develop a personalized risk prediction model for patients with peptic ulcer diseases. Methods: We collected data from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database on 278,898 patients admitted for the first time with a primary diagnosis of peptic ulcer disease. We used the data to develop a nomogram, which we validated by discrimination and calibration, and in a test cohort. Cumulative incidences of study subjects predicted by the nomogram were examined. Results: In total, 1269 subjects developed gastric cancer. Age, sex, peptic ulcer sites, peptic ulcer complications,Helicobacter pylori eradication, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, and surveillance endoscopy were independent factors associated with risk of gastric cancer (all P < .001). The concordance index for the nomogram developed on the basis of these factors was 0.78. Study subjects were divided into quartiles of predicted risk scores; from lowest score quartile to highest, cumulative incidences at 1 year were 7.4/10,000 people, 14.2/10,000 people, 25.5/10,000 people, and 86.6/10,000 people. The cumulative incidences at 2 years were 9.3/10,000 people, 20.9/10,000 people, 38.0/10,000 people, and 135.7/10,000 people for the same quartiles of risk scores. The nomogram was validated in an independent cohort, and similar incidence values were determined. Conclusions: We developed and validated a nomogram to predict risk for gastric cancer 1 and 2 years after diagnosis of peptic ulcer disease. The nomogram provides a prognostic tool that can be easily used for individuals and can help physicians explain risk levels to patients.
    Date: 2015-02
    Relation: Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology. 2015 Feb;13(2):287-293.e1
    Link to: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cgh.2014.07.043
    JIF/Ranking 2023: http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=NHRI&SrcApp=NHRI_IR&KeyISSN=1542-3565&DestApp=IC2JCR
    Cited Times(WOS): https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000348505100016
    Cited Times(Scopus): http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=84923353400
    Appears in Collections:[Jaw-Town Lin] Periodical Articles
    [Others] Periodical Articles

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